Internal Tibias and Permanent Knee Pain

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We all know that there is a %15 risk of having a permanent knee-pain due to internal methods.
I just wanted to ask that, after which part of the procedure we can be sure that we will not have a permanent knee pain? Is it after consolidation or way earlier than that?

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What are the reasons that might increase the probability of its occurrence?
I mean, why would it start after 5 years or anything, is there an actual explanation for that?

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Also, do LON and internal methods have the same possibility rate or is LON better? (as avoiding the knee pain)

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Thank you so much for the replies.